Incidence projections for selected cancers

For males,there are a number of cancer sites which have an age-standardised incidence rate that is projected to increase at a rate of 1% or more per year. The largest of these is malignant melanoma, which is expected to increase by more than 1.8 per year, reflecting an overall change of 52% over the whole time period. Oral cancer is predicted to increase by 1% per year, or by 25% overall, from 10.9 to 13.6 per 100,000 males). Similarly, liver cancer (increasing by 1% per year, or 27% overall, from 5.9 to 7.5 per 100,000 males) and kidney cancer (increasing by 1.1% per year, or 28% overall, from 14.5 to 18.5 per 100,000 males) are increasing by the greatest amount (Figure 6.1).

In contrast, the age-standardised rates for stomach cancer, larynx cancer, and leukaemia are expected to fall by more than 1% per year for males over the time period (Figure 6.1)

Figure 6.1: Selected Common Cancers, Percentage Change in European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, Males, UK, 2007-2030

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The data in this chart were kindly provided by the authors with permission of the British Journal of Cancer *Colorectum including anus (C18-C21) 

Malignant melanoma in females also is expected to grow by more than 1.8% per year, reflecting an overall change of 52% over the whole time period. In contrast, ovarian cancer is expected to fall by 1.4% per year from 17.1 to 12.4 per 100,000 women by 2030. The age-standardised rates for stomach cancer, larynx cancer, and leukaemia are expected to fall by more than 1% per year in females. (Figure 6.2).

Figure 6.2: Selected Common Cancers, Percentage Change in European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, Females, UK, 2007-2030

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The data in this chart were kindly provided by the authors with permission of the British Journal of Cancer *Colorectum including anus (C18-C21) 
 

section updated 15/12/11

The methodology used to calculate the projections for most sites was the same; however, the recent trends in prostate and breast cancer are unusual so a modified methodology has been used.

For prostate cancer the authors assumed that the increased use of PSA testing caused an increase in the number of prostate cancers. They modelled the observed underlying increase in prostate cancer rates from 1975 to 1991 before PSA testing was widespread, and compared this modelled increase in rates to the actual rates in 2004 to 2007 to get an inflation factor associated with PSA testing. The projections for 2008 to 2030 use the underlying 1975-1991 trends multiplied by the inflation factor for 2004-2007. Thus, it is based on the assumption that a similar level of PSA testing will be used in the future.

For breast cancer the method used was similar to the one for prostate cancer and they used the incidence rates from before screening was offered to particular age-groups to project what would have happened to the rates going forward once the data had stabilised, which was different for different age-groups.1

Using this modified methodology the estimates for the age-standardised incidence rate of men with prostate cancer increases from around 97 per 100,000 in 2007 to almost 105 per 100,000 in 2030, an increase of 8%. The age-standardised incidence rate of women with breast cancer decreases from 120 per 100,000 in 2007 to 112 per 100,000 in 2030, a decrease of 7% (Figure 6.3). 

Figure 6.3: Breast Cancer (C50) and Prostate Cancer (C61) European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, 1975 -2007, and Projections to 2030

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The data in this chart were kindly provided by the authors with permission of the British Journal of Cancer.

section updated 15/12/11

In 2030 prostate cancer is set to become the most common cancer overall, up from 4th currently. In 1984 it was the fifth most common cancer (Table 6.3). Instead stomach cancer was the fourth most common cancer in 1984. This had already dropped out of the top 10 most common cancers overall in 2007, and is expected to have fewer than 9,000 cases diagnosed per year by 2030. Malignant melanoma will have risen to the fifth most common cancer for persons by 2030.

In 2007 the four most common cancers were breast, lung, colorectal and prostate cancers, and account for more than half (54%) of all new cases. This will remain the case in 2030.

In males, malignant melanoma is set to become the fourth most common cancer in 2030. It was the 8th most common in 2007 and the 16th most common cancer in 1984. Oral cancer (ICD-10 codes: C00-06, C09, C10, C12-14) has also become more common and will be one of the ten most common cancers by 2030 (Table 6.1).

Table 6.1: The 10 Most Commonly Diagnosed Cancers in Males, UK, 1984, 2007 and 2030

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Adapted from Table 1 and Figure 4 of Mistry et al 2011 with kind permission of the British Journal of Cancer.* Colorectum including anus (C18-C21) 

In females, malignant melanoma has risen from being the 6th most common cancer in 2007 to the fifth most common cancer in 2030. It was the 13th most common cancer in females in 1984. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma and kidney cancer have also risen up the rankings since 1984 and are now in the ten most commonly diagnosed cancers in females (Table 6.2).

Table 6.2:The 10 Most Commonly Diagnosed Cancers in Females, UK, 1984, 2007 and 2030

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Adapted from Table 1 and Figure 4 of Mistry et al 2011 with kind permission of the British Journal of Cancer.* Colorectum including anus (C18-C21) 

Table 6.3: The 10 Most Commonly Diagnosed Cancers in Persons, UK, 1984, 2007 and 2030

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Adapted from Table 1 and Figure 4 of Mistry et al 2011 with kind permission of the British Journal of Cancer.* Colorectum including anus (C18-C21) 

section updated 15/12/11