Statistics on the risk of developing cancer

Lifetime risk is a useful summary of risk in the population but it should be remembered that a large range of genetic and lifestyle factors affect the risk of cancer and the risk for every individual is different.

Two methods have been used to calculate the lifetime risk estimates presented in this section. These are the "Current Probability" method10,11 and the “Adjusted for Multiple Primaries (AMP)” method. 1

You can download an excel template which can be used to calculate the lifetime risk for these two methods.

Section updated 27/07/11

A person's risk of developing cancer is dependent on age. Overall, it is estimated that more than one in three people will develop some form of cancer during their lifetime. This was calculated using the AMP method 1 using 2008 data for the UK.1-8 This compares to an estimated risk of 1 in 36 for men and 1 in 21 for women developing cancer up to the age of 50 years. For further information on risk see the section on understanding risk.

Estimates of the lifetime risk of developing some of the most common cancers are shown in Table 4.1. The majority of these estimates are based on the AMP method . Where there is a low chance of recurrence (such as prostate cancer) the Current Probability method has been used .These estimates assume no change in the current incidence rates and should be used as an approximate guide only.

Table 4.1: Top 15 Male and Female Cancers, Risk of Being Diagnosed with Cancer by Age 65 and Over a Lifetime, UK, 2008

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* Cancer sites with less than 2,000 cases per year are based on 2006-2008 data. These are liver and oral cancer in females and breast cancer in males.
** Colorectum including anus (C18-C21)
*** These cancer sites have been calculated using the Current Probability method. All other sites have been calculated using the AMP method.
 

Cancer is primarily a disease of older people, as the difference between the estimates for the percentage of a cohort who develop cancer by age 65 and over a lifetime show. For instance, for men there is a less than 2% risk of developing lung cancer by age 65 but this increases to almost 8% over a lifetime.

Life expectancy in the UK is increasing, with more elderly people alive today than ever before. In 2009, a woman aged 65 could expect to live to the age of 85, while a man could expect to live to 82 9.

section updated 01/12/11

There was a steady rise in cancer incidence rates from the 1970s until the late 1990s when rates began to stabilise. Lifetime risk increased alongside this rise in incidence rates but has continued to rise due to increasing life expectancy.

By the early 1990s the number of people getting cancer at some point in their lifetime had risen to one in three. It has been increasing slowly ever since and is now four in ten (Figure 4.1).

Figure 4.1: The Lifetime Risk of Cancer*, Great Britain, 1975-2008

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*all cancers, excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC)

This rise since the 1970s is due a combination of factors; most important, however, are the decrease in all cause mortality (i.e. increasing longevity); and the increase in cancer incidence, due to changes in lifestyle, screening detecting more breast cancers and Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) testing detecting more prostate cancers.

section updated 27/07/11