Pancreatic cancer - UK incidence statistics

This page presents pancreatic cancer incidence statistics including, age and sex, trends over time, histology and prevalence. The ICD code for pancreatic cancer is ICD-10 C25.

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Location of the pancreas

The pancreas is situated in a deep location, flat against the back of the abdomen behind the stomach and small intestine. It is part of the digestive system and is a large gland that makes digestive juices and insulin (Figure 1.1).

Figure 1.1: The pancreas and surrounding structures

 

The prognosis for people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer is poor, partly due to non-specific symptoms which leads to the disease being diagnosed at a late stage, and partly because of the location of the pancreas.

section updated 31/12/09

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By Age and Sex

In 2008 there were 8,085 newly diagnosed cases of pancreatic cancer in the UK. Although there are a similar number of cases in males and females, the age-standardised rates are higher for males. (Table 1.1) 1-4

It has been estimated that the lifetime risk of developing pancreatic cancer is 1 in 77 for men and 1 in 79 for women in the UK. This was calculated using the "current probability" method. 5,6

Table 1.1: Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Number of New Cases, Crude and European Age-Standardised (AS) Incidence Rates per 100,000 Population, UK, 2008

England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland United Kingdom
Male Cases 3,345 197 348 111 4,001
Crude Rate 13.2 13.5 13.9 12.7 13.3
AS Rate 10.5 9.7 10.9 11.6 10.5
AS Rate - 95% LCL* 10.2 8.4 9.8 9.4 10.2
AS Rate - 95% UCL* 10.9 11.1 12.1 13.7 10.9
Female Cases 3,410 227 336 111 4,084
Crude Rate 13.0 14.8 12.6 12.3 13.1
AS Rate 8.2 9.0 7.8 8.9 8.2
AS Rate - 95% LCL* 7.9 7.9 7.0 7.3 8.0
AS Rate - 95% UCL* 8.4 10.2 8.7 10.6 8.5
Persons Cases 6,755 424 684 222 8,085
Crude Rate 13.1 14.2 13.2 12.5 13.2
AS Rate 9.3 9.4 9.2 10.1 9.3
AS Rate - 95% LCL* 9.1 8.5 8.5 8.7 9.1
AS Rate - 95% UCL* 9.5 10.3 9.9 11.4 9.5

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*95% LCL and 95% UCL are the 95% lower and upper confidence limits around the AS Rate

Figure 1.2 shows that the age-specific incidence rates increase with age, rates start to rise significantly in people aged 45 and over.1-4 Around three-quarters (75%) of pancreatic cancer cases occur in people aged 65 years or over.

Figure 1.2: Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Average Number of New Cases per Year and Age-Specific Incidence Rates, UK, 2006-2008

cases_crude_pancreas1.swf

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Section updated 12/08/11

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In Europe and Worldwide

It is estimated that around 70,000 people were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in the countries of the European Union in 2008. The highest incidence of pancreatic cancer in the countries of the European Union is found in males in Hungary and the Czech Republic. The highest rates among females occur in the Czech Republic and Finland as shown in Figure 1.3. 7

Figure 1.3: Pancreatic cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, EU-27 Countries, 2008 Estimates

 

EU27_inc_pancreas.swf

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An estimated 279,000 cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed worldwide in 2008. Europe and Northern America have the highest incidence of pancreatic cancer, with particularly high rates in males in Central and Eastern Europe. The lowest incidence rates are found in Asia and Africa as shown in Figure 1.4.8

Figure 1.4: Pancreatic cancer (C25), World Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, World Regions, 2008 Estimates

 

world_inc_pancreas.swf

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Section updated 12/08/11

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Trends over time

The age-standardised rates for men declined slightly between 1979 and 1996, and since then have remained stable. The rates for women declined between 1989 and 1997, but since then have gradually increased. The decrease for males partly reflects the decline in smoking prevalence, as smoking accounts for up to 30% of pancreatic cancer cases in the UK.

Figure 1.5: Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, Great Britain, 1975-2008

inc_asr_gb_pancreas.swf

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The pancreas cancer incidence trend for the UK is shown in Figure 1.6.

Figure 1.6: Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, UK, 1993-2008

inc_asr_uk_pancreas.swf

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Section updated 12/08/2011

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Histology

Around 95% of pancreatic tumours are adenocarcinomas, originating from the exocrine (digestive enzyme-producing) part of the pancreas. Nearly all of these are ductal adenocarcinomas.

There are also three rarer types of exocrine pancreatic cancer, for which the treatment followed is more or less the same as for ductal adenocarcinoma. Endocrine tumours of the pancreas exist too, arising from the islets of Langerhans (which produce several hormones including insulin), but are rare.9

section updated 31/12/09

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Prevalence

Prevalence data relate to those people in the UK population who were alive on a specific date having previously been diagnosed with cancer. The latest analysis shows that on 31st December 2006, around 4,300 people were alive up to ten years after being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer.10 Table 1.2 shows the one, five and ten year prevalence by sex for pancreatic cancer.

table showing pancreatic cancer prevalence in the UK

section updated 13/06/2010

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References for pancreatic cancer incidence

  1.  Cancer Registrations in Wales, 2008 Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit, 2010
  2.  Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, 2010 Cancer Incidence and Mortality.
  3.  ISD Online Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Survival data. Accessed 2010
  4.  Office for National Statistics, 2010 Cancer Statistics registrations: registrations of cancer diagnosed in 2008, England. (PDF 544KB) MB1 Series No. 39, 2010
  5.  Goldberg ID, Levin ML, Gerhardt PR, Handy VH, Cashman RE The probability of developing cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst 17: 155-173 1956
  6.   Esteve J, Benhamou E and Raymond L Descriptive epidemiology (IARC Scientific Publications No.128), Lyon, International Agency for Research on Cancer, pp 67-68 1994
  7.  European age-standardised rates calculated by the Statistical Information Team at Cancer Research UK, 2011 using data from GLOBOCAN 2008 v1.2, IARC, version 1.2. http://globocan.iarc.fr
  8.  Ferlay J, Shin HR, Bray F, Forman D, Mathers C, Parkin DM, GLOBOCAN 2008 v1.2, Cancer Incidence and Mortality Worldwide: IARC CancerBase No. 10 [Internet] Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer; 2010. Available from: http://globocan.iarc.fr
  9.  Adami, H.O., D. Hunter, and D. Trichopoulos, Textbook of Cancer Epidemiology. Vol. 2002, Oxford University Press: New York
  10.  National Cancer Intelligence Network One, Five and Ten Year Cancer Prevalence June 2010