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Prostate Cancer survival statistics

This page presents prostate cancer survival statistics trends over time, by geographical differences and by age and stage at diagnosis.

Survival rates for prostate cancer have been improving for more than 20 years. However, interpretation of prostate cancer survival trends is difficult as the case-mix on which they are based is likely to have changed over time with earlier diagnoses following the advent of transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) and, prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing.

The detection of a greater proportion of latent, earlier, slow-growing tumours in more recent time periods will have the effect of raising survival rates due to lead-time bias, that is, the difference in time between screen detection and clinicl detection in the absence of screening.1

Lead-time bias is estimated to be between 5-12 years, varying with a man's age at screening.2,3 Data from the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) estimated that for a single screening test, mean lead times of 12 years at age 55 and six years for a man aged 75.3

There may also have been genuine improvements in survival due to more effective treatment, both for early, aggressive prostate cancers and for advanced cases.4

Prostate cancer survival trends

The five-year relative survival rate for men diagnosed in England in 2000–01 was 71%, compared with only 31% for men diagnosed in 1971–75 (Figure 3.1).5,6

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The one and 10-year prostate cancer survival rates have also risen dramatically. Similar increases have occurred in Scotland:five-year relative survival rates increased from 47% for patients diagnosed in 1980-1984 to 80% for patients diagnosed in 2000-2004.7 The increase in prostate cancer survival rates is particularly pronounced in the 1990s when PSA testing became more prevalent.8

Geographical variations in prostate cancer survival

The same problems of interpretation apply to international comparisons of survival rates (Figure 3.2.9,10 The 99% five-year survival rate recorded for white American men is likely to reflect the stage distribution of registrations in that country due to PSA testing.11

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Prostate cancer survival by age and stage at diagnosis

Survival from prostate cancer is strongly related to the stage of the disease at diagnosis. For disease which is confined to the prostate, five-year relative survival for patients in England in 1999-2002 is 90% or more, but if the disease is metastatic at presentation five-year relative survival is lower at around 30%. 12

For most cancers survival rates decrease with age of patient, but five-year relative survival rates for men diagnosed with prostate cancer in their 60s are higher than rates for either younger or older men (Figure 3.3).12,13

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References for prostate cancer survival

1. Parker, C., et al., A model of the natural history of screen-detected prostate cancer, and the effect of radical treatment on overall survival. Br J Cancer, 2006. 94(10): p. 1361-8
2. Pashayan, N., et al., Excess cases of prostate cancer and estimated overdiagnosis associated with PSA testing in East Anglia. Br J Cancer, 2006. 95(3): p. 401-5
3. Draisma, G., et al., Lead times and overdetection due to prostate-specific antigen screening: estimates from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst, 2003. 95(12): p. 868-78
4. Kvale, R., et al., Interpreting Trends in Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the Five Nordic Countries. J. Natl. Cancer Inst., 2007. 99(24): p. 1881-1887
5. Coleman, M.P., et al., CCancer Survival Trends in England & Wales, 1971-1995 Deprivation & NHS Region. 1999: The Stationery Office.
6. Coleman, M., et al., Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival in England and Wales up to 2001, in BJC. 2004. p. 1367-
7. ISD Online, NHS Scotland.
8. Quinn, M. and P. Babb, Patterns and trends in prostate cancer incidence, survival, prevalence and mortality. Part II: individual countries. BJU Int, 2002. 90(2): p. 174-84
9. Berrino, F., et al., Survival for eight major cancers and all cancers combined for European adults diagnosed in 1995-99: results of the EUROCARE-4 study. Lancet Oncol, 2007. 8(9): p. 773-83
10. SEER, Fast Facts: Prostate cancer: Survival and Stage. 2008.
11. Quinn, M. and P. Babb, Patterns and trends in prostate cancer incidence, survival, prevalence and mortality. Part I: international comparisons. BJU Int, 2002. 90(2): p. 162-73
12. Prostate cancer survival by stage. Analysis undertaken by South West Public Health Observatory 2008.
13. Office for National Statistics, Cancer Survival, England, 1999-2004. 2007.

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